Many are concerned about climate change, and others doubt it will occur. Some are still undecided. Will it really be that bad? Is there anything we can do about it? And if so, what? I thought I knew a lot, but turns out I hardly know anything. That’s not so easy to admit. How about you? Do you think you know more? Then here you go…
A Few Estimation Questions
Please guess:
- How many people live on Earth today? And how many were there 100 years ago?
- By how many degrees has our climate heated up during this period? (The last 100 years)
- At what point do chain reactions occur that we can no longer stop? And how hot will it be by the end of the century?
- Are we burning more coal today than we did in 2000 or less? How much?
- By what percentage has the ice at the North Pole already melted in the last 40 years?
- How many vertebrates went extinct in the same time period?
- How many tons of plastic are floating in the ocean today? Estimate how big is the area?
- What’s the biggest and fastest lever to stop all of this?
If you are now expecting a raised index finger and inwardly switch to defense, please suppress the impulse and let yourself be surprised.
The answers: (Please be brave):
- In the last hundred years, the world’s population has grown from 1.5 billion to almost 8 billion people.
- In that time, the Earth has warmed by over one degree Celsius after being stable for over 1,000 years.
- As low as two degrees, we exceed tipping points that lead to an automatic heating spiral. It is then realistic that it will be five degrees hotter by the end of this century.
- Nevertheless, we burn 80% more coal today than we did in 2000.
- In the last 40 years, 80% of the ice at the North Pole has already melted.
- In the same period, over 50% of our vertebrates became extinct.
- Today, 150 million tons of plastic are floating in the ocean, a plastic soup four times the size of Germany.
- Currently, the fastest and largest lever to stop the climate crisis is the immediate reduction of methane emissions, which as a greenhouse gas is 25 times more potent than CO2.
Is everything not that bad?
It would be nice.
Compared to what is still to come, today’s effects of climate change are like a harmless cold but unfortunately, the one small degree of warming so far is only the beginning.
No one knows today how warm it will get -and how quickly. It will happen because it has been getting warmer slowly so far –from the perspective of a human lifetime. Perhaps that’s why we haven’t taken global warming seriously enough, even though it is accelerating.
It’s getting uncomfortable
Global greenhouse gas emissions have risen by 50% since the first climate conference in 1995 –and are now higher than ever before. So it will probably not work out with the desired maximum of two degrees of warming, the curve goes steeper and further up. If we don’t take countermeasures, it will even be five degrees higher by the end of the century. That’s a lot of summer for our earth.
Although “only” two degrees warmer is no longer a joke. All the ice on polar ice caps and glaciers would be melting and water would be scarce for millions of people. Heat waves could kill thousands of people, even in northern latitudes. With a warming of three degrees, there will be worldwide droughts that will last for years, and in southern Europe, they will be permanent. Forest fires would be multiplying, food shortages and price inflation would be the new normal, and more epidemics would be breaking out. And, of course, there are constantly parallel environmental disasters, storms, floods, floods, and destruction. It will get very uncomfortable on our beautiful planet.
So far, so bad. Perhaps, however, the Earth warms up between four and five degrees -permanent and irreversible. By then, large parts of the United States, Africa, Australia, South America, and Asia will no longer be habitable.
By a maximum of five degrees, the Greenland ice sheet has melted, a third of the Amazon has been destroyed, and 99 percent of all coral reefs have been destroyed. 50% of all animals and 60% of all plants will be extinct. The thawing permafrost releases unknown pathogens and epidemics spread. Rising sea levels are flooding entire coastal areas. Heat waves, which then are many times more severe and longer, are hitting precisely those regions that are already suffering from heat. Harvests are too low, and hunger is spreading. Also in Europe, there will be droughts, asthma, malaria, lack of food and water, and death. The economy is dying, and flows of climate refugees are throwing the world into disarray – between 200 million and one billion people in 2050, according to UN estimates, who will do anything to survive. Armed conflicts, wars! Imagine, people who built a wall to keep others out could become refugees themself.
But some forecasts now predict as much as eight degrees of warming. Then, in the hottest regions, life outside dwellings is no longer possible. Like on desert planets in science fiction movies. Food? Forget it! Even the Alps would be as dry as a mountain range on Mars. On the other hand, sea levels would rise by 60 meters, altering entire coastlines. Two-thirds of all metropolises would be flooded, including New York, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Dakar, and Karaji –all of them mud, or underwater.
However, some of these estimates are still optimistic. It can get so bad sooner than we expect. Even if we manage only two degrees of warming, our atmosphere will contain at least 500 ppm CO2. The last time this happened was 16 million years ago. At that time, it was between five and eight degrees warmer and the seas were 40 meters higher –and not just half a meter, as we hope today.
Stop the madness!
So let’s see how we can prevent all this crap. Because one thing is clear, nothing is going to stop all of this, except us.
Why us?
After all, the climate has always changed –even without human influence. For example, 700 million years ago, the Sturtic Ice Age began, during which almost our entire planet froze over. Or 250 million years ago, The Great Extinction, a heat phase that killed 90 percent of all species.
Is it even true that we are causing today’s climate change?
Wrong question! Apart from the fact that 97% of all climate researchers answer “YES” it only leads to even more waste of time. The point is, even if we don’t cause climate change, it’s happening. So we have to ask ourselves a completely different question:
How can we stop it?
You can help! Be part of it!
What do I do? Not nearly enough and I realized it when I translated this article, written by Stephen Guenter for the Nachrichten Magazine The Spiegel.
The truth is it doesn’t matter if I eat meatless dishes, or if I keep plastic bottles out of landfills and oceans. While it might be an honorable effort, it will take so much more. It will take all of us to change laws and regulations. Not for us, but for future generations.
Honestly, we are selfish, we need to get our heads out of our behinds and work together as one.
Because one day we will have to. Sadly, perhaps that’s what it will take to unite us all. To fight extinction.
This is such an informative and important post. The facts are shameful–all that floating plastic! I went to Alaska in 1999 and was able to see the glacier that I now understand is gone.
Wow, thank you for sharing this. A glacier gone in twenty years. We need to wake up.
Such an eye opening important piece. I think you are right, the individual cannot do much. We need to elect officials and EVERYONE needs to do their part. Sadly I don’t see it happening soon. My generation likely will be gone well before anything is done I fear. I am not even sure my daughter’s generation will get anything done. It will get critical before much is done… sad.
It starts at the top and sadly, we vote the wrong people in. The 2-party system in the US is such a relict and long overdue to be challenged. Other countries have small parties, like the green party for example. They might never be the winner of an election but with over 5% of the votes, they have a say and bring attention to subjects like coal, greenhouse gases, climate change and so much more. The individual here in the US can do a little bit, but what good does it do if you still allow factories to flood rivers with chemicals?
I agree with you … we need a third party candidate with long haul potential. Where do we find someone who knows and speaks the truth? In this day and age, not in politics.
This is a topic that has frustrated, saddened, and angered me for such a long time. I believed the science 30 years ago! I find it hard to believe that we are still arguing about “who” or “what” causes climate change, rather than just putting all of our efforts into doing ALL that we can. I’m at an age where this affects me much less than when I consider what my grandchildren are going to live with. We can’t agree on anything in this country, so I don’t hold out a lot of hope.
It makes us both angry and we are not alone. Our headlines are full with BS about an ex president who doesn’t care about anything else but him and his family (and his bank accounts.)
I don’t have too much hope either, but I am not giving up (yet).
Scary facts, Bridget. Waiting for a miracle.
You and me both.
I fear you are right Bridget, we are all selfish to a degree and I cannot see any major change occurring any time soon. There will be much wringing of hands, and claims that “nobody warned us”, “I never realised”, and so on. Meanwhile, we race to oblivion!
That’s what I don’t get. We know it, yet we still hope it won’t be that bad and do ultimately nothing.
Excellent post Bridget. Hard to believe that some still think the current climate change is not being impacted by human activities. That is like saying the weight of your foot on the gas pedal has no impact on the speed of a car moving down the road. Still more and more people buy bigger and glitzier SUVs and trucks, fast fashion and highly processed products while doing little to mitigate their consumption. Driving smaller more fuel efficient vehicles and keeping them longer, walking and cycling instead of driving, combining many short car trips into one longer one, using only the electricity and water you need, etc. are all things you can do. We have been doing this since 1984. Have a pleasant Sunday. Allan
I like your comparrison with the gas pedal. Sadly, it is true. We are still racing full speed when we should have been slowing down many, many years ago. We consume too much meat and yes, the cars should be all fuel efficient or have a catalysator. I don’t know why we are not getting it. Have a great week, Allan.
A sound, thoughtful, post. Bridget. I could not have answered the questions. Most of the wealthier nations are not prepared to change their lifestyles; some are doing their best to reduce the world population anyway.
That’s the biggest problem. Money and power. Trump runs on the promise to make America great, like as it would be great to reopen all the coal mines. This world is overpopulated, yet we ask women to have more babies. It’s so against logic and knowledge, it hurts me to listen to it.
I wish more people would believe it, then more will be willing to do something about it.
Simple logic! I like it.
Thing is .. like with COVID, we won’t do anything till we see the deathly consequences. Only this time, we may be too late. 😫
Happy Easter everyone. 😉 😔
Sadly you are right. Happy Easter to you and your family.
It’s beyond frightening. Thank you for this information.
Thank you for reading. Yes, it is frightening.
I certainly agree about the selfish part and pretty much all you wrote. How do you make people care?
I don’t have the answers. I have only questions…too many perhaps.
Yeah, I hear you! I was so sure that covid was a wakeup call but everyone just went back to sleep. I guess if you accept reality tv as reality you don’t have to pay attention to climate change…..
Don’t get me started on reality TV. There is no stopping me, it drives me nuts.